AGP Executive Report

US Embargo Impact: Cuba says Washington’s stepped-up blockade delivered record losses of $8.083B from March 2025–Feb 2026 (up 7%), calling it “collective punishment” that hits electricity, water, food, transport, and healthcare. Energy & Industry Strain: Havana links the crisis to an “energy blockade” that blocks fuel and power-plant parts, worsening blackouts and disrupting hospital operations and water pumping. Diplomacy Update: Cuba’s foreign minister reiterates there are no ongoing talks or agendas with the U.S., while Cuba plans to push the embargo case again at the UN General Assembly on Oct 27–28. Daily-Service Bottlenecks: Passport processing is reportedly delayed by about four months, with lines often collapsing when electricity fails. Connectivity Pushback: ETECSA’s new public WiFi zone on Isla de la Juventud drew sarcasm from residents, given ongoing blackouts and safety concerns. Local Economy & Health Support: In Holguín, a paladar owner began providing free weekend meals for doctors at a municipal hospital, easing costs during a strained healthcare period.

Energy & Infrastructure: Cuba’s energy crisis is worsening as the US embargo and new “oil blockade” measures bite harder, with the foreign minister warning the country is living through months of only 2–3 hours of electricity a day or less. US Embargo Costs: Cuba says US sanctions caused record losses of $8.1B between March 2025 and February 2026, up 7%, while the figure excludes damage from January energy restrictions and May secondary sanctions. Diplomacy: Bruno Rodríguez reiterated there are no negotiations with Washington and no agreed agenda, though Havana says it remains willing to maintain contacts. Renewables in Practice (Guantánamo): Despite fuel shortages, Guantánamo inaugurated the El Algarrobo Photovoltaic Park (21.875 MWp), and officials highlighted solar expansion plus efforts to secure alternative water sources amid drought. Water & Grid Reliability: Local authorities in Guantánamo are inspecting wells, planning new wells, cleaning septic tanks, and deploying transformers while expanding backup power and solar installations. Private Sector Support: A Guantánamo charging and services center run by an MSME is operating amid the crisis, serving thousands with charging, food services, and document printing.

Energy Crisis & Grid Reliability: Havana residents in Fontanar (Boyeros) staged pot-banging protests and blocked a main road over blackouts lasting 20+ hours, with reports of police beatings and detentions. Public Health: The U.S. Embassy issued a health alert citing a significant rise in diarrheal illness tied to the worsening water and energy infrastructure, urging extra care with perishable foods and hygiene. Energy Transition: Cuba is pushing solar power and improvising with solar panels and storage as outages worsen, framing photovoltaics as a route to energy sovereignty. Sanctions & Finance: Multiple reports over the week highlight the U.S. tightening the economic squeeze on Cuba, including new curbs tied to the power grid and to Raúl Castro’s grandson and state-linked entities. Governance & Transparency: A Cuban writer demanded public disclosure of the identities and sources of wealth of “millionaire compatriots of socialism,” arguing that today’s beneficiaries are hidden compared with pre-1959 openness. Security Apparatus: Emir Mesa Corona, long tied to leadership protection, reappeared publicly alongside Raúl Castro after rumors of serious health deterioration. Trade & Industry Links: Belarus’ ambassador met Cuban trade officials to discuss industrial cooperation and food security, including participation in an upcoming Belarus industrial exhibition.

Power & Protest: Havana’s Fontanar residents staged pot-banging and blocked Rancho Boyeros Avenue over blackouts lasting 20+ hours, with police arriving in force and detaining people. Energy & Grid Strain: Cuba’s fuel blockade and failing water/energy infrastructure are also driving a rise in diarrheal illness, prompting a U.S. embassy health alert tied to food storage and temperature control problems. Sanctions Pressure: Multiple reports highlight how new U.S. measures are intensifying the squeeze on Cuba’s energy, finance, and key sectors, even as trade patterns show exports rising. Local Water Tensions: Diez de Octubre residents protested planned water connections to a military facility, underscoring how shortages and infrastructure priorities spark neighborhood conflict. Waste & Logistics: Havana received Chinese solid-waste equipment—20 trucks and 240+ containers—aimed at improving collection, though officials admit it won’t fully solve the crisis and production is slowed by energy constraints. Economy Outlook: A Cuban economist estimates GDP could fall 26%–31% in 2026, citing state goods-and-services output data and worsening price pressures. Migration Spillover: Guyana began receiving vetted third-country deportees from the U.S., including six from Cuba, via an IOM-managed, one-year arrangement. Leadership Watch: Raúl Castro reappeared publicly at a military event after hospitalization, with state coverage also referencing halted U.S. talks involving his grandson.

US-Cuba Trade: U.S. exports to Cuba hit a July record of $148.9M, with $674M shipped in Jan–Jul—up 61.8% year-on-year—even as Washington tightens sanctions. Public Health & Water-Energy Strain: The U.S. Embassy issued a health alert on rising diarrheal illness tied to failing water and electricity, warning about unsafe food storage. Macroeconomy: A Cuban economist says GDP could fall 26%–31% in 2026, driven by worsening goods production and price pressures. Energy Coping & Grid Reality: Cubans are turning to solar, charcoal, and improvised power as fuel blockades bite; meanwhile, Matanzas’ Guiteras plant reportedly stayed online 30 straight days, despite frequent outages. Waste & Dengue Risk: Havana received Chinese solid-waste equipment (trucks and containers) but officials admit it won’t solve the problem; Isla de la Juventud flagged uneven collection and dengue increases. Water in Havana: Díaz-Canel set late-September as the first test date for measurable water improvements, with renewable-energy-backed solutions targeted for later in 2026. Local Security & Livestock Theft: Camagüey mobilized 330 horse riders to curb cattle theft and illegal slaughter. Sanctions Pressure: New U.S. measures target Cuba’s power grid and Castro-linked entities, deepening the crisis.

US Sanctions on Cuba’s Energy Chain: Washington added Fidel Ernesto Castro Calis, Banco Exterior de Cuba, and key oil and mining firms (including Abapet) to its sanctions list, aiming to disrupt spare parts and worsen the power grid crisis. Havana Water Deadline: Díaz-Canel set late-September as the first measurable test for Havana’s water supply improvements, with more consolidation in October and renewable-energy-backed solutions by year-end—though residents remain skeptical after repeated missed promises. Grid Reliability Under Pressure: A Matanzas reporter celebrated the Antonio Guiteras plant staying online for 30 straight days, but the broader picture remains fragile after frequent outages and long-delayed maintenance. Local Fallout and Protests: Prolonged outages have sparked demonstrations in Havana neighborhoods like Fontanar, with police repression reported quickly. Public Health Warning: The US embassy issued a health alert citing rising diarrheal illness linked to failing water and electricity, affecting sanitation and food storage. Workplace Safety Costs: Cuba’s electric utility reported another lineman death during maintenance in Havana, underscoring ongoing risks in the power sector. Energy-Adaptation Reality: Cubans keep improvising—solar tricycles, rechargeable fans, and DIY solutions—as fuel and electricity constraints deepen.

US Sanctions & Energy Shock: Cuba’s Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez denounced new U.S. measures as “cruel and ruthless aggression,” targeting Fidel Ernesto Castro Calis, Banco Exterior de Cuba, and energy-linked firms, while analysts warn Cuba may scramble to source banned grid parts at higher cost. Grid Crisis & Public Health: The U.S. Embassy issued a health alert over rising diarrheal illness tied to failing water and electricity infrastructure, as blackouts and fuel shortages worsen. Havana Protests Over Power: Residents in Fontanar protested prolonged outages, with police arriving quickly; Díaz-Canel also urged civil-defense shelter planning as the capital struggles to guarantee electricity even for water pumping. Food & Consumer Pressure: Reports highlight price-control crackdowns in Camagüey amid skepticism, while Havana saw looting of cooking oil shipments as prices surged after Resolution 150/2026 removed caps. Industry Safety: Cuba’s electric utility reported another lineman death during maintenance in Havana, underscoring ongoing workplace risk. Cuban Business/Trade: Cuba’s private sector reforms continue, including expanded rights for small businesses and private retail/restaurant chains.

Energy Infrastructure: Cuba is overseeing construction of a 50-megawatt Battery Energy Storage Station in Cueto, aimed at stabilizing the grid and supporting solar generation as part of a plan to add 200 MW via four storage complexes. Tourism Regulation: Cuba’s Ministry of Tourism issued four new resolutions to boost the leisure sector, including first-time tax incentives for ecotourism tied to foreign investment, plus rules expanding tourist transport participation for wholly foreign-owned firms and partnerships. Power-Crisis Enforcement: MININT confirmed scientific checks at highway checkpoints to detect dielectric oil mixed into fuel; 21 of 105 inspected vehicles tested positive, with 18 seized in the province. U.S. Sanctions Pressure: The U.S. imposed new sanctions targeting Cuba’s energy and mining supply chains and individuals linked to the Castro family, including Abapet, warning the measures could further disrupt maintenance for the aging power grid. Public Health Risk: The U.S. Embassy in Havana issued a health alert citing a significant rise in diarrheal illnesses linked to deteriorating water and energy infrastructure, urging stricter food and hygiene precautions.

US Sanctions Tighten on Cuba’s Energy, Mining, and Finance: The U.S. hit Fidel Ernesto Castro Calis (Raúl Castro’s grandson), Banco Exterior de Cuba, and state-linked firms tied to nickel/cobalt and the power grid, including Abapet, aiming to block spare parts and worsen blackouts and fuel shortages. Cuban Response: Foreign Minister Bruno Rodríguez called the move “collective punishment,” while Washington framed it as pressure on regime elites amid a deepening crisis. Tourism Still Sliding: Cuba logged just 32,272 international arrivals in July, down 92% from July 2018, even as the month showed a small uptick versus June. Grid Strain Meets Workplace Risk: A 32-year-old Havana lineman died during electrical maintenance, underscoring how the energy emergency is pushing crews into dangerous, high-pressure conditions. Reform Push Under Pressure: Cuba published new rules to attract foreign investment and simplify business operations, as sanctions and blackouts continue to squeeze industry and trade.

Non-State Economy Boost: Cuba’s National Institute of Non-State Economic Actors says Decree-Law 133 (published in the Official Gazette) cuts red tape for municipal-level private activity, amends rules for micro/SMEs, non-ag co-ops and self-employment, and lets private firms hire more than 100 workers. Sanctions Hit Energy & Mining: The U.S. Treasury added Fidel Ernesto Castro Calis and Cuba’s Banco Exterior de Cuba plus four state-linked firms tied to nickel and energy to its sanctions list, tightening pressure as Cuba’s grid and fuel situation worsens. Tourism Push Despite Strain: Cuba’s tourism ministry says it’s reorganizing services to meet demand, leaning on its hotel capacity and targeting arrivals for Varadero and Havana while training staff for shifting markets. Humanitarian Access Pressure: The Cuba Study Group urges Washington and Havana to remove barriers blocking humanitarian aid, including a call for a light-fuel exception so hospitals can generate electricity. Digital Identity & Biometric Ecosystems: A Fragomen–SICPA JV is expanding its identity platform with Idemia biometrics, signaling faster rollout of end-to-end ID services. Air Connectivity: U.S. airlines seek extensions of route waivers for China and Cuba as demand remains weak.

Seismology Under Threat: Cuba’s Isle of Youth seismological station is out of service after thieves stole everything from solar panels and batteries to the seismometer and digitizer; officials call it more than theft and urge it be treated as sabotage. Digital Government Push: Cuba is upgrading its Soberanía digital platform with UNDP and China support, adding online services and issuing 43,000 verified digital IDs, though adoption lags. Private Sector Expansion: New rules remove the 100-worker cap for private businesses, expand MSMEs, and allow direct import/export and foreign capital partnerships—while keeping state oversight. Tourism Slump: ONEI reports international travelers down to about half of last year’s level, with a sharp fall in visitors from Canada, the U.S., and the Cuban diaspora. Energy Pressure & Theft: Reports tie Cuba’s blackout crisis to equipment aging and lost Venezuelan oil, while transformer oil theft continues to be treated as a serious crime. Overseas Labor Scrutiny: The Bahamas union demands answers after Cuba educators’ contracts aren’t renewed amid U.S. pressure on overseas labor programs.

Private Sector Expansion: Cuba’s Council of State published a regulation (Decree-Law 133) removing the 100-worker cap for private firms, formally enabling companies with more than 100 employees while keeping them under state controls. Energy & Grid Policy: A new U.S. executive order (bulk-power equipment) tightens restrictions on foreign-produced grid hardware transactions, with possible effects on equipment already installed and new sourcing decisions. Construction Safety: Guyana’s labor ministry launched an investigation after a Cuban worker died and two others were critically injured when a scaffold rolled into a live power line at a construction site. Aviation Debt: Russian firm Ark Technic sued Cubana de Aviación/CACSA in Moscow for about $6.2M and seeks asset seizure, underscoring Cuba’s shift toward commercial aviation contracts. Tourism Shock: Cuba’s tourism fell 62% in Jan–Jul 2026 (419,000 visitors vs. 1.1M in 2025) amid U.S. pressure and an energy embargo. U.S.-Cuba Politics & Oil: Marco Rubio reiterated that normalization can’t fully happen without democracy and blamed Cuba’s blackouts on aging infrastructure plus the end of subsidized Venezuelan oil. Overseas Labor Pressure: The Bahamas Union of Teachers demanded answers after Cuba-linked overseas educators’ contracts (31) were not renewed, citing U.S. pressure over labor programs.

Cuba Tourism Shock: Cuba’s tourism fell 62% in the first half of 2026 (419,000 visitors vs. 1.1 million in 2025) as the U.S. tightened pressure, including an energy embargo that pushed major hotel chains to suspend contracts and disrupted payment and airline access. Power & Water Under Strain: Havana is racing to keep water flowing amid the energy crisis, mobilizing generators for dozens of pumping sites and prioritizing solar complexes and storage at key supply points. School Year Disrupted: Cuba’s 1.4M students returned to classrooms with shortages of teachers, uniforms, food, and frequent blackouts; in Camagüey, at least one childcare center sent children home because it lacked minimum conditions. Housing Legalization Extended: Cuba extended by one year the process to legalize homes and rooms built without authorization, citing that energy-saving measures have slowed access to required procedures. Grid Security Crackdown: Cuba’s Attorney General says it will strictly apply sabotage penalties for attacks on the National Electric System, including transformer oil thefts blamed for outages and production disruptions. Construction Safety Abroad: A Cuban construction worker died in Guyana after scaffolding rolled into power lines, highlighting risks for Cuban labor overseas. Seismic Monitoring Hit: On the Isle of Youth, thieves stole equipment from a seismic station, including solar power and instruments used to track earthquakes and tsunamis. Cuba–China Tensions: China’s embassy in Havana sharply criticized U.S. remarks about China’s presence on the island, calling out Cold War-era “Monroe Doctrine” thinking.

Education Under Strain: Cuba’s 2026-2027 school year opens for 1.4M+ students with shortages of teachers, uniforms, food, and frequent blackouts, as families scramble after fuel and power problems keep buses off the roads. Energy Crisis: The national grid starts September with a major generation deficit, with UNE forecasting peak shortfalls of about 2,310 MW and widespread outages hitting schools and daily life. Policy Response: Education Minister Naima Trujillo says in-person classes will continue, using “educational zones” and staggered schedules to stretch limited resources across provinces. Private Sector Retail Expansion: Cuba authorizes private retail and restaurant chains, signaling a further push to expand non-state services amid the economic squeeze. Diplomacy & Sanctions: Cuba’s UN ambassador says the U.S. keeps tightening sanctions while urging investment, arguing the blockade is the main barrier to growth and stability. Industry/Trade Watch: Cuba’s mining, metal, and construction firms face new U.S. sanctions, adding pressure to an already fragile supply chain. Culture & Branding: Havana Club Añejo 7 Años rolls out a redesigned bottle globally, a rare bright spot for Cuban consumer branding.

US-Cuba Humanitarian Talks: Secretary of State Marco Rubio met Mike Hammer in Washington to review Cuba’s situation and the rollout of $100M in humanitarian aid routed via Caritas and other trusted groups, amid heightened tensions and fallout from Venezuela’s shifting energy landscape. Private Sector in Education: With schools opening under shortages, Camagüey’s local “state and private” sponsors are stepping in for repairs and maintenance, while the Education Ministry admits uniforms, notebooks, and school meals remain strained. Teacher Contract Shock: The Bahamas says it won’t renew 31 Cuban teachers’ contracts, citing recruitment of local educators and ongoing negotiations with the US over Cuban health and education labor arrangements. Retail Liberalization: Cuba authorized private retail and restaurant chains, letting micro, small, and medium firms and cooperatives register one brand and operate multiple locations—part of a broader push to modernize management and production. Energy Theft Crackdown: Santiago de Cuba reported high rates of transformer dielectric oil theft, with prosecutors treating attacks on the electrical system as serious sabotage. Food Security Pressure: A BBC analysis highlights Cuba’s heavy food import dependence and sharp declines in key staples like pork, rice, beans, and milk, pointing to both sanctions impact and internal agricultural failures. Aid by Sea: Spain’s Open Arms delivered 7 tons of humanitarian supplies to Havana, including medical items and school materials, for distribution to nephrology and pediatric hospital partners.

Private Sector Expansion: Cuba has authorized private retail and restaurant chains nationwide, letting micro, small and medium firms, cooperatives and foreign investors register one brand and open multiple locations across provinces, with payments accepted in both Cuban pesos and foreign currencies—part of a broader push to modernize management and boost productivity amid shortages and power outages. Power-Sector Security: Cuba’s Prosecutor’s Office warns that stealing dielectric oil from transformers and other electrical-system components will be treated as sabotage, with penalties up to death; it says 460+ investigations opened since May 2025 and that transformer-oil theft is the most common offense, feeding an informal fuel market. Energy Transition Incentives: ONAT announced a one-year tax exemption on sales of renewable energy technologies for individuals and businesses, effective Aug. 5, requiring sellers to separate renewable sales in accounting to keep the incentives transparent. Local Food Systems: WFP expanded its “Act Differently!” local food project in Rafael Freyre (Holguín), linking agricultural cooperatives with social protection institutions and adding supplies, equipment and training to strengthen eastern Cuba’s food resilience. Tech & Health R&D: Díaz-Canel highlighted ICIMAF’s Boneconsol ultrasonic bone-consolidation device, moving through regulatory validation to support domestically produced medical equipment. Digital Retail Rules: Cuba also moved to update its domestic trade framework and relax wholesale regulations, aiming to reduce bureaucracy and widen market access.